Could Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola Beat Sen. Dan Sullivan After Pantsing Sarah Palin Twice?

Last year, Democrat Mary Peltola beat Alaska’s former Republican Gov. Sarah Palin twice in separate US House elections. Turns out the new congresswoman’s victory wasn’t solely due to ranked choice voting or the overall suckiness of Sarah Palin. No, Alaskans really like Peltola! Alaska has only one at-large congressional district, so she’s already proven her statewide appeal. Could she become the next Lisa Murkowski but better? Pollster Ivan Moore tested Peltola in a hypothetical matchup against Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, who’s up for re-election in 2026.

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Sarah Palin A Total Loser. Again.

Welcome To Congress, New Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola!

Sarah Palin First Place Loser In Alaska US House Special Election

Moore’s Alaska Survey Research conducted a poll in late April of 1,261 likely voters. That’s a pretty robust sample size considering Alaska’s population is slightly less than Seattle’s. The results are impressive for Peltola, who leads Sullivan 44 percent to 41 percent with 15 percent of voters undecided. There’s long been debate among pollsters over whether undecided voters are more likely to break for the incumbent or the challenger, but Sullivan’s been in office for eight years. It’s hardly good news that there are this many fence sitters.

Peltola boasts a positive rating of 53 percent versus a negative rating of just 28 percent. Meanwhile, Sullivan has underwater popularity of 45 percent that’s only slightly better than his negative rating of 42 percent. The dude’s the sitting senator! Guess when your parents help buy your Senate seat, they can’t buy voter trust and affection. It’s a political Aesop. (Sullivan was one of just 12 Republicans who voted to advance the Respect for Marriage Act last November, so we’ll at least give him a half-eaten cookie.)

We should urge caution, though, because it looked as if Sullivan was vulnerable in his 2020 re-election campaign against the unfortunately named Democrat Al Gross. Sullivan had just squeaked out a narrow, three-point win over Democrat Mark Begich in 2014, a Republican curb stomp year. Multiple polls showed Gross within striking distance of Sullivan, who ultimately crushed Gross by 12 points. Alaskans approved ranked-choice voting in 2020, so that might give Peltola an advantage Begich lacked.

Peltola also has another edge — a strong, effective “brand.” Summer Koester at the Independent explored these strengths in her article “How did a Democrat become the most popular politician in conservative Alaska?”

As a Yup’ik Native Alaskan, Representative Peltola embodies traditional Alaskan values that she reinforces through her tagline, “Fish, family, and freedom.” Her campaign has branded her as a true Alaskan undefined by political party and her messaging taps into Alaskan symbolism, mythology, and nostalgia.

“Brands are made up of a logo or a symbol, a tagline, and a mythology,” she explains. “In Mary Peltola’s case, the logo is the candidate herself… ‘Fish, family, & freedom’ is simple and yet communicates so much – a commitment to the environment and sustainable fishing, concern about family matters even if she supports abortion, and freedom is code for support of the Second Amendment.”

Yeah, we know. Peltola’s barely gotten her new House seat warm, and we’re already talking about a 2026 Senate race. But if Democrats potentially lose West Virginia and Ohio next year, we’ll need to find whatever bright spots we can. Ranked-choice voting and Peltola’s political savvy might help us make up much-needed lost ground.

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