Until fairly recently, Nevada was frequently on the lists of states where Democrats needed to worry about losing a Senate seat to the Republicans. They fretted that first-term Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) might not win reelection — especially if the state soured on Joe Biden, as seemed very possible earlier this year. During the 2022 midterms, Nevada’s senior senator, Catherine Cortez Masto, won reelection in a squeaker, beating Republican Adam Laxalt by fewer than 8,000 votes, and there were worries that meant trouble for Rosen this year.
In April, the Cook Political Report moved the Nevada Senate race from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up,” but Rosen, unlike some red- or purple-state Democrats, didn’t attempt to distance herself from Biden. Instead, she made a point of calling attention to the economic benefits the administration’s policies — especially the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act — have brought to Nevada.
And now we get to the “Whew, for now!” part: Rosen’s poll numbers have in recent months rebounded, and two weeks ago, the Cook Report shifted the contest between Rosen and Republican nominee Sam Brown back into the “Lean Democrat” column.
Rosen has also been setting state records for campaign fundraising, hauling in $5 million in the first quarter of the year, then $7.6 million in the second quarter, far more than Brown, who brought in $2.2 million in the first quarter and another $4 million in the second.
This is Brown’s second shot at a run for Senate; he finished second to Laxalt in the 2022 GOP primary. He has some legitimate war hero credibility, having survived a roadside bomb in Afghanistan that nearly killed him, leaving him with severe burns and injuries. “Purple Heart recipient” is in the first line of his campaign site bio. Funny thing: At some point since he won this year’s GOP primary in June, Brown’s campaign removed Donald Trump’s last-minute endorsement from the site’s front page. But it’s still on the campaign’s “media” page.
As in many races this year, Rosen presents voters a clear choice on abortion rights: She’s made preserving them a central theme of her campaign, while Brown, like lots of Republicans in swing states, is astonished that you would mistake him for that hardline anti-abortion crusader who used to share his name and looked exactly like him. Don’t you dare say he would vote for a national abortion ban, you, because in June he wrote an op-ed pledging he definitely wouldn’t do that, and he also wouldn’t dream of overturning the 1990 referendum in which Nevada voters protected abortion rights.
Of course, Brown does want everyone to know that he’s super-duper “pro life,” but only on the state level, OK? Just don’t read too much into little details like how in 2018 he recruited and managed the unsuccessful Texas congressional campaign of Sam Deen, who called himself “100% Pro Life, no exceptions.” Look, it was a long time ago and Republicans could afford to be extremists on the topic in those days before Dobbs.
Also too, Sam Brown would like you to believe that even though he was the head of Nevada’s branch of the national “Faith and Freedom Coalition,” a group that routinely supports the strictest possible abortion restrictions, in factb the Nevada group almost never thought about abortion, because it was focused on stopping human trafficking, and, um, “supporting the devastated communities recovering from the COVID-19 shutdowns,” according to his comms director, Kristy Wilkinson. Shh.
Another factor that may help Rosen is that this year, Nevadans will be voting on whether to strengthen the state’s existing protections by adding protections for abortion rights to the state constitution. The 1990 law allows abortions up to fetal viability (24 weeks), and allows later abortions if necessary to protect the pregnant patient’s life or health after that. But it’s just a law, so after Dobbs, reproductive rights advocates wanted the greater security of a constitutional amendment, which would be far more difficult to overturn. In a weird quirk of Nevada law, voters will actually have to approve the amendment twice, both this year and in 2026.
Since the June primaries, Rosen’s poll numbers have improved considerably; back in May, for instance, a New York Times / Siena College poll had her tied with Brown at 41 percent of likely voters, but most polls since then have shown Rosen with a significant lead. The change in the Cook Report’s rating came after that organization’s poll gave Rosen an 18-point lead over Brown. What’s more, the August 15 Times/Siena poll of likely voters had her ahead of Brown by nine points, and this week’s Fox News poll has Rosen up by 14 points.
And of course, Rosen (and Harris-Walz too!) will likely get a voter turnout boost in November from Nevada’s very well-organized casino and food service unions, too.
None of this is to say that Rosen can afford to rest until the votes are all in and counted and protected from Trump mobs, so if you want to help Jacky Rosen help Democrats hold the Senate, her campaign page is right here.
[Punchbowl News / Nevada Current / Axios / NYT / 538 / Rosen for Nevada]
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