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It’s the first Friday of the month, and you know what that means! Dok missed the “First Thursday” drink specials at downtown Boise bars last night again! It also means the monthly jobs report was released by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, and it’s another good ‘un, with nonfarm jobs up by 254,000 in September, and the unemployment rate dropping down to 4.1 percent, a tenth of a percentage point from August.
After last month’s more tenuous jobs gains, economics boffins say it’s a sign of a strong economy, but not one that’s galloping back into inflationary territory, meaning that the Fed will probably continue slowly reducing interest rates, likely another quarter percent in November and again in December.
Oh, and Reuters, noting the four percent year-over-year increase in wage gains — yes, that is almost double inflation — called it a “blowout.”
So hey, this is good news for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, especially since it’s the last jobs report that will be released prior to the presidential election, not that we’re just partisan cheerleaders or anything. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to take off this giant novelty “KAMALA-WALZ #1!!” foam finger so I can type a bit nmorre accyratelu.
The news even seemed to warm the icy hearts of the often dour headline scribes at CNBC, who said “U.S. job creation roared higher in September as payrolls surged by 254,000,” which for those guys suggests they were hitting the edibles and dancing around the cubicle farm. Or maybe it was an intern. The September report came in well ahead of the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 150,000, leading to an audible outburst of angry “howevers” from the economists surveyed.
Also good news: The August and July jobs reports were revised upwards based on more complete data from employers, adding 17,000 for a total of 159,000, and July’s initially gloomy-seeming 89,000 jobs number was revised significantly upward, by 55,000, for a respectable total of 144,000 for that month. That may allay worries that the job market is softening and might even stifle some of the more excitable folks saying we’re headed into a recession. But it’s the economy, so maybe we are after all!
CNBC does call attention to one caveat, which is that the rate of response from businesses — 62 percent — was much lower than usual, Crom only knows why. That could mean that next month’s report could include a significant revision one way or ‘tother. Yes, start your conspiracy theories now!
The Washington Post found an economist willing to say hooray without any finger-wagging, so that’s something:
“This was a very encouraging payroll report, with job growth handily beating expectations,” Sonu Varghese, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group in an analyst note. “The fact that inflation is easing at the same time means productivity growth is strong, and that should keep the Fed on track for more rate cuts — an added tailwind for the economy and markets.”
Well that would be nice. It should also be interesting to see what next month’s report looks like, since the September numbers were collected just before the Fed announced its half-point rate cut. Somebody will need to remind us to check that out on the Friday after the election.
[Bureau of Labor Statistics / CNBC / WaPo]
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