Business conditions may not be perfect, or even great. Butwhatever happens next, America’s CEOs can handle it. This volatile year proved it.
That sentiment is the big takeawayfromChief Executive’sDecemberCEO Confidence Index,fieldedthe first week ofDecember,findsCEOs’ outlook for the year aheadimprovedby2percentfrom last month,to 6.4out of 10in our December polling,continuing a positive streak from October—a totalgainof 15 percentoverthe third quarter.
The pollalsofindstheirrating ofthe current business environmentimproving, up2percent inDecember.At6.0, measured on a 10-point scale, it is the second highest level of the year, only surpassed by January (6.3/10).
CEOs who are optimistic that things will improve by year-end 2026 cite more clarity on tariffs, controlled inflation, lower interestratesandanticipatedinvestments to business growth as well as tax cuts. They communicate a growing assuredness in their companies’ ability to adapt to various situations after a turbulent 2025, where many learned how to best navigate the uncertain environment.
“We havea roadmap to import tariff craziness,” saysDan Reinhart, CEO ofSalem Fabrication Technologies Group.
Matthew Hubbard, CEO of Continental Services, a company in hospitality and managed food service, agrees. “Businesseswere caught flat footed in 2025,” he says, “and will not make that mistake again in 2026.”
Many CEOs we polled remaincautious of continued political instabilityandtariffs—and forecast weakening consumer confidence which could affect their revenue and bottom line.“Consumerspendis going to continue to decline,” says David Henz, CEO of Summit Seed Coatings, an industrial manufacturing firm.
Timothy Bowe, CEO of professional services firmEvergreen Technology, agrees.By this time next year,heexpectsthe economy to beworsefor a host of reasons:“macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty andvolatility.Largeamount of price pressure built up in the supply chain. Forward looking concerns about inconsistency of US policyimpactingboth domestic and global markets.”
Overall,asmaller proportion of the272CEOswepolledin Decemberforecastimprovements in business conditions in the year aheadcompared to November—down to 44 percent from 47 percent—even as the percentage whoforecast worsening conditions fell from 24 percent in November to 21 percent this month.About35percentforecast conditions willcontinue ontheir current path.
“Everything I am seeing is flat.It will take a while before the companies that say they are investing in US manufacturingactually getfactories up and online.When that happens, we will see an uptick in the economy,” says Justin Hogarth, CEO ofLyncoUSA, an industrial manufacturing company.
RECESSION FORECASTS
The overall proportion of CEOs who expect a recession in the next six monthsremained stable since last month at 22 percent,the lowest proportion of the year.It reached 62 percent in April, its peak for 2025.Now 52percent expect economic growth for the nearterm,up by 2percentage pointssince November.
THE YEARAHEAD
Looking more specifically at how all this willimpacttheir respective companies, CEOs report:
- 75percentanticipateincreasing revenues in the year ahead, up from70 percent who forecasted growth one month prior.
- 67percent expect to increase profitability, up vs.59percent inNovember.
- 42percent plan to increase capitalexpenditures, vs.43percent inNovember.
- 46percent plan to add to their headcount, up from43percent last month.
Chief Executive Group’sannualFinancial Performance Benchmarksfor U.S. Companiesoffers a highly detailed look into companies’ profit forecasts and pricing strategy for 2026.Click here to download your copy.
