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Just a few months ago, Nevada Democrats appeared in pretty dire straits. President Joe Biden’s approval ratings were under water, especially among Latino voters, and polls showed incumbent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto trailing Republican nominee and Big Lie promoter Adam Laxalt. We’re just one seat away from Mitch McConnell officially returning as Senate majority leader, and we also have it on reliable authority that Adam Laxalt is a soulless, opportunistic creep. So, this was unambiguously bad news.
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However, recent polls have revealed compelling signs of life for Masto’s campaign. She had a three-point edge over Laxalt in a July Emerson College poll, and she’s absolutely crushing the former attorney general by 10 points in a Beacon Research poll. That last one seems too good to be true, and Nevada polling has previously overestimated Democratic strength. In 2020, even a Fox News poll had Biden leading Donald Trump by 11 points. His final margin was just 2.7 points, slightly less than his margin in actual swing state Michigan.
However, Biden underperformed slightly in Nevada among Latinos, and Cortez Masto doesn’t seem to have this problem. She held a 38-point lead over Laxalt in a June poll. That’s consistent with Sen. Jacky Rosen’s 37-point margin among Latinos when she defeated Republican incumbent Dean Heller in 2018.
Unfortunately, Democratic incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolakisn’t doing as well as Masto. He’s lost ground with key demographics, specifically Latinos. Nevada voters rate him less favorably than Masto. Sisolak’s effectively tied with Republican nominee Joe Lombardo, and it seems like Biden’s dismal approval in the state is dragging him down more than Masto.
Lombardo, the sheriff of Clark County, has Trump’s endorsement, but he didn’t fully mortgage his soul for it. He recognizes Biden as the legitimate president and has adopted a “reasonable Republican” facade that no one should buy if they’re familiar with the name Glenn Youngkin.
Sisolak soundly defeated Laxalt in 2018, and Masto probably benefits from running against his sloppy seconds. Laxalt was the state co-chair of Trump’s 2020 campaign, and the Nevada Current described him as the “proud face of the Big Lie in Nevada.” While attempting to justify Trump’s coup, Laxalt wrote an op-ed for the Review Journal two weeks after the 2020 election where he declared there were “thousands of illegal votes consisting of a combination of dead voters, out-of-state voters, double voters (those who cast ballots in Nevada and another state), among other improper votes.” He had zero evidence for this claims.
Undermining democracy probably won’t help Laxalt win this race. According to a Nevada Independent poll, abortion ranks just below the economy as a motivating issue for voters. Jobs numbers are improving and gas prices are dropping, which makes the economy less toxic for Democrats. Voters also know that Republicans want to repossess their uteruses. Democrats and Republicans are evenly split in Nevada, so independent voters usually determine the election winner. The majority of independent voters oppose extreme abortion bans.
Although nine out of 10 Nevadans believe abortion should remain legal in some shape or form, Laxalt has calledRoe v. Wade a joke and denounced Nevada’s abortion rights protections. As attorney general, he frequently defied his constituents’ wishes and signed his state onto anti-choice lawsuits that went nowhere. He later admitted to a group of faith leaders, though, that Nevada is a pro-choice state.
LAXALT: We’re not a pro-life state. We all have to be honest about that. It’s sad, it doesn’t make me happy. But we are not a pro-life state and we got work to do on that.
This “work” is not changing hearts and minds but imposing forced-birth legislation and restricting access to safe abortions. Nevada should re-elect Masto and keep Laxalt far away from the levers of power.
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